“相互そうご関税かんぜい” 停止ていし措置そち期限きげん迫せまる 発動はつどうで日本にっぽんへの影響えいきょうは？【QA】

The deadline for the temporary suspension of reciprocal tariffs by the Trump administration in the United States is approaching on the 9th.

What kind of impact is expected on Japan if reciprocal tariffs are imposed?

I will inform you along with the history of the negotiations so far.

Q1

Whats the current situation? The Trump administration in the United States is currently imposing additional tariffs on Japan.

Furthermore, it is also being applied to all countries and regions, and has been suspended until July 9.

Q2

What actions has the Japanese government taken so far? The Japanese government has been searching for a solution by repeatedly holding ministerial negotiations with the United States and reviewing its measures.

Minister for Economic Revitalization Akazawa has repeatedly visited the United States since April this year, holding a series of negotiations with Treasury Secretary Bessent, Commerce Secretary Ratnick, and others.

Among these, the Japanese side has particularly insisted on a review of the additional tariffs on automobiles.

In order to extract concessions from the United States, the Japanese side has mainly proposed expanding trade, reviewing non-tariff measures, cooperating on economic security, and, in addition, a system to lower automobile tariffs in proportion to the contribution to the American automobile industry.

However, the gap with the United States, which is seeking a reduction in the trade deficit, has not been bridged. At the G7 summit in June, which the Japanese side considered a milestone, Prime Minister Ishiba held a summit meeting with President Trump, but they were unable to reach an agreement, and negotiations between ministers are continuing.

Q3

President Trump this month: Japan has been very unfair in trade until now.

You will have to pay a tariff of 30% or 35%, or a tariff that we decide.

If tariffs against Japan are raised, what kind of impact can be expected? According to Takahide Kiuchi, Executive Economist at Nomura Research Institute, if the tariff rate for mutual tariffs is raised to 35%, Japans GDP Gross Domestic Product would decrease by about 1% within a year due to the overall U.S. tariff measures, including automobile tariffs.

It is estimated that it will be pushed down by 1%.

Even if tariffs are raised to 30%, Japans GDP will be 0.

It is said to be depressed by 97%.

Mr. Kiuchi stated that Japans GDP would be reduced by about 0 within a year under the current series of tariff measures, which include a uniform 10% tariff.

It is estimated that profits would be pushed down by 47%, and if mutual tariffs were to be raised, the economic impact would be more than double that.

Mr. Kiuchi said, If the situation worsens, the probability that the Japanese economy will fall into a recessionary phase by next year is expected to exceed 50%.

Japan should not make concessions and should continue to demand the removal of tariffs.